The Tale of Two Jobs Reports, A Big Bill, and a Market That Can’t Decide What to Do Next

Alright friends — let’s break this down like I’m talking to you over coffee (or maybe a glass of wine, depending on how the day’s going). It’s June 2025, and the economy is basically having a personality crisis.

On one side, you’ve got ADP waving a red flag saying, “Hey, private companies actually let go of 33,000 people last month. Small and medium businesses? They took the hardest hit. The services sector alone lost 66,000 jobs. Not exactly the comeback Wall Street was hoping for.”

Then on the other side, there’s the BLS chiming in, “Whoa there, we actually ADDED 147,000 jobs, and unemployment dipped to 4.1%!” But half those new jobs were government gigs, and fewer people even looking for work helped keep that unemployment number pretty. It’s like tweaking the scoreboard so it doesn’t look quite as rough.

So what does this circus mean for interest rates? The Fed’s basically shrugging. A July rate cut that seemed possible? Pretty much off the table now. Could September or October bring some relief? Maybe — it’s a coin toss.

Meanwhile, there’s some good stuff happening for homeowners and investors. That “One Big Beautiful Bill” got signed into law, locking in the mortgage interest deduction forever, protecting 1031 exchanges, quadrupling SALT deductions for five years, and keeping standard deductions high. No wonder NAR and the homebuilders are throwing confetti.

But how are buyers feeling? Still kinda cautious. Only 28% think it’s a good time to buy, but hey, that’s way up from 17% back in 2022. More homes are hitting the market (inventory’s up 29% vs last year), and prices are holding steady overall, though some hot spots from the pandemic boom — like Texas, Florida, and Hawaii — are finally cooling off.

Oh, and the FHFA just shook things up by telling Fannie and Freddie to accept VantageScore 4.0. More competition in credit scores could mean more options (and maybe savings) for your buyers down the road.

Bottom line: this market’s kind of like a choose-your-own-adventure book right now. Some chapters say we’re slowing down, others say full speed ahead. Rates could dip later this year, or not. Either way, there are solid opportunities out there for buyers and sellers who stay informed.

I’ll keep watching it for you — and promise to break it down without the boring jargon. If you like these updates, give it a clap here on Medium or reach out. Always happy to help you and your clients figure out the next best move.