July 16, 2018 by Leave a comment

Here we go with another week. After some positive economic data mortgage rates have moved slightly higher. We have several notable economic reports out over the next few days as well as the ongoing trade talk concerns, so rates could move around a little. Read on for more details.

Where are mortgage rates going?                                      

Mortgage move higher after retail sales report

The retail sales report for June got released today, and it showed a healthy uptick of 0.5% from the previous month. Not only that, but the May reading got revised from a month over month rise of 0.8% to 1.3%.

All of the news outlets are reporting on this story and citing how it demonstrates that the U.S. economy finished out the second-quarter on a high note.

Given the perceived strength of the economy, financial market participants are taking on more risk today, moving money out of the safe haven of long-term government bonds and into stocks.

This is pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which is the best market indicator of where mortgage rates are going, up almost five basis points on the day.

Mortgage rates typically move in the same direction as the 10-year yield, so we’re seeing a little upward pressure to start the week.

Rate/Float Recommendation                                

Lock now before move even higher    

Mortgage rates are on track to increase over the coming months as the Federal Reserve gets ready to, and follows through with more increases to the nation’s benchmark interest rate.

To avoid locking in a higher interest rate, we recommend that borrowers take action on a purchase or refinance, sooner rather than later.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data:          

Retail Sales 

Retail sales for June increased by 0.5% month over month. Retail sales less autos rose 0.4%. Retail sales less autos and gas ticked up 0.3%. The control group was unchanged.

Overall, it’s a solid report that points toward a strong finish for consumer spending in the second-quarter.

Empire State Mfg Survey

The General Business Conditions Index for July hit 22.6. That’s just a hair above the 22.0 that analysts had predicted.

Business Inventories

Business inventories increased by 0.4% in May.

Notable events this week:     


  • Retail Sales
  • Empire State Mfg Survey
  • Business Inventories


  • Industrial Production
  • Housing Market Index
  • Fedspeak


  • Housing Starts
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
  • Beige Book
  • Fedspeak


  • Jobless Claims
  • Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey


  • Nothing

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Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

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