July 12, 2018 by Leave a comment

Mortgage rates have moved up slightly this week. They are still hovering in the tight range that they’ve been in for the past couple of months, but we did see a modest nudge higher. If you’re considering a purchase or a refinance, we believe the smart move is to lock in a rate soon. Read on for more details.

Market Outlook 7.9.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.

Where are mortgage rates going?                                      

Mortgage rates nudge higher

It’s been a fairly uneventful week (unless you count the drama in the World Cup), keeping mortgage rates from moving too far in either direction. Long-term Treasury yields have moved up and down, but are ultimately resting at levels very close to where they were at the start of the week.

In the headlines, analysts are still talking about the global trade war that is taking place, with the U.S. and China being the main players here. It’s definitely an interesting situation at the moment because no one really knows exactly where we are headed.

What we can say, though, is that with the inflation readings this week coming in at strong levels and last week’s monthly jobs report showing a healthy labor market, the Federal Reserve is posed to continue raising the nation’s benchmark interest rate.

This might not put immediate upward pressure on mortgage rates, but as we move through the third and fourth quarter this year it is reasonable to expect mortgage rates to increase.

We did get the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) today, which showed that rates inched higher. Here are the numbers:

  • The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved up one basis point to 4.53% (0.4 points)
  • The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage moved up three basis points to 4.02% (0.4 points)
  • The average rate on a 5-year adjustable rate mortgage increased twelve basis points to 3.86% (0.3 points)

Here is what the Economic and Housing Research Group at Freddie Mac had to say about rates this week:

“Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged, but did tick up for the first time since early June.

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to hover along the same narrow range, as increased global trade tensions are causing investors to take a cautious approach. This in turn has kept borrowing costs at bay, which is certainly welcoming news for those looking to buy a home before the summer ends.

A record number of people quit their job last month, most likely for a new opportunity with higher wages and better benefits. This positive trend, along with these lower mortgage rates, should increasingly give some previously priced-out prospective homebuyers the financial wherewithal to resume their home search.”

Rate/Float Recommendation                                

Lock now before rates rise          

Given that mortgage rates are expected to rise over the coming weeks and months, we believe the smart move for most borrowers is going to be to lock in a rate sooner rather than later.

The longer you wait, the more likely it is that you will be locking in a higher rate. It only takes a few minutes or a quick phone call to get started.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data:         

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index for June rose 0.1% from the previous month, putting it at a year over year change of 2.9%. CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% month over month, putting it at 2.3%, year over year. The monthly reading for June is notable in that it’s a six-year high.

Jobless Claims

Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits came in at 214,000 for the week of 7/7/18. That puts the four-week moving average at 223,000. It’s a drop of 18,000 from the previous week.


  • Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker at 12:15pm.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 8:00pm.

Notable events this week:     


  • Fedspeak


  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index


  • PPI-FD
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
  • Fedspeak
  • 10-Year Note Auction


  • Consumer Price Index
  • Jobless Claims
  • Fedspeak


  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Fedspeak
  • Import and Export Prices

*Terms and conditions apply.

Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

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