September 8, 2016 by Leave a comment

Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.

Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.

Where are mortgage rates going?

Freddie Mac has rates lower

It’s Thursday morning after 10am, and that means that we have the pleasure of viewing this week’s Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). After a less than stellar August jobs report last Friday, investors moved back into stocks this week causing mortgage rates to move slightly lower.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 2 points to 3.44% (0.6 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage went down 1 point to 2.76% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 2 basis points to 2.81% (0.4 points).

current mortgage rates

This is now the 11th consecutive week where the 30-year fixed rate average has remained in the 3.41%-3.48% range.

It’s always worth noting that data for the survey gets collected early on in the week, so the report does not necessarily reflect current market conditions. That being said, the yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note is actually trading lower than where it was on Monday and most of Tuesday, so it’s possible that rates are a touch lower than where the PMMS has them.

Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.

Fed Fund Futures doubt September

The Fed Fund futures took a hit on Tuesday after the ISM index posted its worst reading since 2010. Anyone who had their hopes up for a September rate hike must now deal with the near certainty that that event will not come to pass. I was never in that camp, and am therefore, left with nothing to grieve. Of course, anyone who wants to look at it in a positive light, could say that the glass isn’t 85% empty for September, it’s 15% full. That optimism might make you feel good, but I don’t think it will give you a rate hike on the 21st. November doesn’t get much better with a 21% chance. I’ve been saying it for months, amid all of the rate hike hoopla: December is the only real contender for a rate hike. That doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing, though. Right now, it has a little over a 50% chance.

Rates are still near record lows.  Contact us today to see if we can save you money on your home payments.

What does this mean for me?

Low rates favor borrowers

The low rate environment lives to see another day. The average rate on a 30-year fixed is just 13 basis points above all-time lows. As chief economist at Freddie Mac Sean Becketti said today, “Many are taking advantage of the historically low rates by refinancing.” If you’ve been thinking about locking in a low rate, you’re not the only one. It seems like low rates aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, but it’s still the smart play to act now while you have the sure thing.

Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.

Today’s economic data:

Jobless Claims

Jobless claims fell 4,000 to 259,000 for the week of 9/3. That puts the 4-week moving average at 261,125. The labor market has been producing healthy numbers throughout 2016, and that trend continues with this report. This data is pushing long-term government bonds and mortgage rates up this morning, but only by a couple points. That’s not enough to rebound back to where it was before the terrible ISM index report on Tuesday.

EIA Petroleum Status Report

For the week of 9/2:

  • Crude oil +2.3 M barrels
  • Gasoline -0.7 M barrels
  • Distillates +1.5 M barrels

Notable events this week:           

Monday:  

  • Labor Day

Tuesday: 

  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
  • Fedspeak

Wednesday: 

  • Fedspeak
  • JOLTS
  • Beige Book

Thursday:

  • Jobless Claims
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report

Friday:

  • Fedspeak

Rates are still near record lows.  Contact us today to see if we can save you money on your home payments.

Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.


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