Here we go with another week. We’re expecting mortgage rates to continue to stay in a narrow range. Long-term rates are expected to rise so we’re recommending anyone thinking about a purchase or refinance to lock in a rate sooner rather than later. Read on for more details.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Inflation data in the cross-hairs
The week following the monthly jobs report is historically a quiet one. While it’s true we aren’t going to get flooded with economic data, there are a few key inflation reports scheduled for release that investors will certainly have their eyes on.
It starts on Wednesday with the Producer Prices reading for June. The consensus is an increase of 0.2% across the board, which is healthy but not robust. Anything above or below that mark would have a greater impact on the markets.
After that report, we have the Consumer Prices Index on Thursday. This will be the more interesting release, with the Federal Reserve no doubt paying attention to see if CPI rises by at least 0.2%.
With inflation continuing to move higher, the Fed will remain in a position to raise the nation’s benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, two more times this week. So what does this mean for the direction of mortgage rates?
Well, it all comes down to what the actual data says. Right now it’s looking like we’ll get some moderately strong readings which would put some upward pressure on mortgage rates, but not a lot.
Mortgage rates have remained in a fairly tight range for the past couple of months now, something that is somewhat of a surprise after the rapid escalation that took place in the first half of the year.
It’s kind of an interesting situation at the moment because rates have seen modest declines in four out of the last six weeks in the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS); however, all signs point toward an uptick for rates toward the end of the year as the Fed follows through with their interest rate hikes.
Lock while rates are down
Given that mortgage rates are widely expected to rise significantly by the end of the year, we believe that the smart decision for most borrowers is to lock in a rate on a purchase or refinance sooner, rather than later. The longer you wait the more likely it is that you’ll get a higher mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 9:10am
Notable events this week:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- 10-Year Note Auction
- Consumer Price Index
- Jobless Claims
- Consumer Sentiment
- Import and Export Prices