July 5, 2018 by Leave a comment

It’s back to work after the holiday but mortgage rates aren’t really moving around much. The big economic event of the week will happen tomorrow morning when the monthly jobs data for June gets released. We could certainly see mortgage rates move around when that happens so keep an eye out for any market adjustments. Read on for more details.

Where are mortgage rates going?                                    

Rates decline in Freddie Mac PMMS

After being closed on Wednesday for July 4th, the markets are open again. As one would expect, it’s a fairly quiet day, keeping mortgage rates basically unchanged.

Current mortgage rates have bounced around a little this week but are still staying in a narrow range. It was good news for anyone looking to purchase or refinance today as the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed that rates declined again. Here are the numbers:

  • The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell three basis points to 4.52% (0.5 points)
  • The average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage sunk five basis points to 3.99% (0.4 points)
  • The average rate on a 5-year adjustable rate mortgage dropped thirteen basis points to 3.74% (0.3 points)

Here is what the Freddie Mac Economic and Housing Research Group had to say about rates this week:

“After a rapid increase throughout most of the spring, mortgage rates have now declined in five of the past six weeks.

The run-up in mortgage rates earlier this year represented not just a rise in risk-free borrowing costs, but for investors, the mortgage spread also rose back to more normal levels by about 20 basis points. What that means for buyers is good news. Mortgage rates may have a little more room to decline over the very short term.

Although the current economic expansion is in its 10th year, residential single-family real estate was initially slow to recover. Now, backed by the demographic tailwind provided by millennials reaching the peak age to buy their first home, the housing market should have some room to grow going forward.”

Rate/Float Recommendation                               

Lock while rates are down             

Mortgage rates have stayed in a tight range these past couple of months but are still expected to move higher later this year as the Fed brings the nation’s benchmark interest rate up.

If you are thinking about buying a home or refinancing your current mortgage, we strongly recommend that you take advantage of today’s environment and lock in a rate.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data:         

ADP Employment Report

The ADP Employment Report showed that 177,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in June. That’s slightly below the 190,000 that analysts had projected. The ADP report is the precursor to the more influence jobs report that will be released tomorrow morning. The two reports don’t always sync up, so it’s hard to make any assumptions about tomorrow’s numbers.

Jobless Claims

Applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 6/30/18 came in at 231,000. That puts the four-week moving average at 224,500. Claims have been getting higher recently, but analysts are still expecting a strong jobs report tomorrow.

PMI Services Index

The PMI Services Index came in exactly as expected at 56.5.

ISM Non-Mfg Index

The ISM Non-Mfg Index struck a 59.1 in June. That’s basically right in line with what was expected.

FOMC Minutes

The FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s meeting a few weeks ago will be released this afternoon at 2pm. It’s always possible that investors will make some trades based on the details that are revealed.

EIA Petroleum Status Report

For the week of 6/29/18:

  • Crude oil: 1.2 M barrels
  • Gasoline: -1.5 M barrels
  • Distillates: 0.1 M barrels

Notable events this week:     


  • PMI Manufacturing Index
  • ISM Mfg Index
  • Construction Spending


  • Nothing


  • Markets Closed: July 4th


  • ADP Employment Report
  • Jobless Claims
  • PMI Services Index
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
  • FOMC Minutes
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report


  • Employment Situation
  • International Trade

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Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

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