July 2, 2018 by Leave a comment

We’re expecting mortgage rates to remain in a tight range this week but we could see some slight movement as the economic reports roll out. The most important report for investors will be the monthly jobs report on Friday morning. That report always has the potential to influence where mortgage rates go. Read on for more details.

Market Outlook 7.2.18 from Total Mortgage on Vimeo.

Where are mortgage rates going?                                   

Rates inch lower to start holiday shortened week

Here we go with another week. U.S. financial markets are closed for July 4th on Wednesday, but we still have several economic reports out that could influence mortgage rates, including the monthly jobs report for June on Friday morning.

That report is always one of the biggest market moving pieces of economic data each month, and there’s no reason to believe that this time around will be different. Analysts are calling for an increase of 191,000 jobs to the U.S. economy.

That’s a solid reading that would likely put some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Typically, positive economic data signals to investors that they can take on more risk, pushing money out of bonds and into stocks.

Mortgage rates are largely tied to long-term government bond yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield. When demand for these bonds lessens, yields rise and bring mortgage rates with them.

Rate/Float Recommendation                              

Lock before rates rise             

What happens this week largely depends on the monthly jobs report on Friday. If the numbers come in as expected, it would signal to the Fed that the U.S. economy is strong enough to follow through with the two more rate increase projected for this year.

That would likely cause investors to move out of bonds and into stocks, bringing mortgage rates higher.

Learn what you can do to get the best interest rate possible.  

Today’s economic data:         

PMI Manufacturing Index 

The PMI Manufacturing Index hit a 55.4 in June. That’s slightly above the level that analysts had predicted.

ISM Mfg Index 

The ISM Mfg Index came in at a 60.2 for June. That’s just above the mark that analysts had expected.

Construction Spending  

Construction spending for May rose by 0.4%, putting it at 4.5% year over year.

Notable events this week:     


  • PMI Manufacturing Index
  • ISM Mfg Index
  • Construction Spending


  • Nothing


  • Markets Closed: July 4th


  • ADP Employment Report
  • Jobless Claims
  • PMI Services Index
  • ISM Non-Mfg Index
  • FOMC Minutes
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report


  • Employment Situation
  • International Trade

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Carter Wessman is originally from the charming town of Norfolk, Massachusetts. When he isn’t busy writing about mortgage related topics, you can find him playing table tennis, or jamming on his bass guitar.

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