1. Bernanke: “Continued Weakness in the Housing Market Poses a Significant Barrier to a More Vigorous Economic Recovery”

    By on January 5, 2012

    In a letter to the Congress, Ben Bernanke presented a white paper (“The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Recommendations“) that details some of the Federal Reserve’s recommendations for healing the ailing housing market.

    The paper states that home prices are down about one third from their 2006 peak, and the loss in value has accounted for about $7 trillion worth of losses in household wealth.  The problems plaguing the housing market are well-documented, but are encapsulated neatly within this quote:

    “The extraordinary problems plaguing the housing market reflect in part the effect of weak demand due to high unemployment and heightened uncertainty.  But the problems also reflect three key forces originating from within the housing market itself: a persistent excess supply of vacant home on the market, many of which stem from foreclosures; a marked and potentially long-term downshift in the supply of mortgage credit and the costs that an often unwieldy and inefficient foreclosure process imposes on homeowners, lenders, and communities”.  

    Bernanke and his staff recommend three things that could help alleviate some of the problems facing the market:

    • Policies that would help decrease the supply of unsold homes
    • Making it easier for creditworthy borrowers to access mortgage credit
    • Limiting foreclosures

    To accomplish these goals, the paper recommends several courses of action.  The first is to make it easier to convert foreclosed properties to rental units.  The second is to loosen credit, particularly by making it easier for borrowers to refinance their mortgages.  The third is to more aggressively avoid foreclosures and to pursue mortgage modifications and provide greater incentives to lenders to avoid foreclosure.

    The white paper does not lay out specific blueprints as to how to achieve these goals (and in fairness, it does not aim to do so).  Bernanke mostly lays out different ways that these goals could be achieved, and the potential pros and cons to some of these possibilities.  I do not want to recap the entire paper here, but it contains some interesting data and is well worth reading in its entirety.

    Of course, achieving these goals is easier said than done.  The current toxic partisan atmosphere in Washington is one that seems to discourage cooperation and encourage knee-jerk obstructionism (see the debt ceiling fiasco, the payroll tax extension nonsense, and the current presidential campaign for just a few examples).  The problems that face the housing market have existed for at least three years, and many of Bernanke’s solutions are common sense ideas that it doesn’t take a team of highly-trained economists to identify.

    The lack of any sort of cohesive, cogent housing policy/vision from the White House and congress represents a critical failure on the part of our elected officials, republican, democrat, or otherwise.  The whole situation smacks of Nero fiddling while Rome burns, and I am not optimistic that anything will be done to fix the situation anytime soon.

     

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  2. Reuters: Despite Prohibition, Robo-Signing of Foreclosure Documents Continues

    By on July 19, 2011

    There are a plethora of reports coming out today saying that the practice of robo-signing persists despite prohibitions against it.

    In a nutshell, robo-signing occurs when an employee signs off on mortgage- or foreclosure-related documents to assure their accuracy without actually verifying that the documents are accurate.  In some cases, signatures on documents were forged (here is a pretty good overview of the infamous Linda Green robo-signed documents from FireDogLake).

    This occurred largely because of the securitization of mortgages and the resulting loss and/or destruction of documents crucial to proving ownership of a given home and establishing who has standing to foreclose on a home that is in default (for even more background, here is a 60 Minutes story on the issue from April).

    In any case, robo-signing caused a big uproar during the fall and spring which resulted in temporary foreclosure moratoriums.  In the wake of the scandal, major lenders and mortgage servicers promised to end the practice.  Now a (highly informative) Reuters report suggests that robo-signing is still occurring:

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  3. Housing Double Dip Shows Homebuyer Tax Credits Were a Waste

    By on May 12, 2011

    Of course hindsight is 20/20, but you didn't need a crystal ball to see that this was a bad idea.

    SmartMoney.com published an article by Jack Hough that raises some interesting questions regarding government support for the housing market, specifically, the first time home buyer tax credits of the past two years.  The premise of the article is that since the expiration of the tax credits, average home prices have significantly declined, wiping out anything gained by the credits:

    “The median home value fell to about $170,000 in March from $185,000 a year earlier, according to Zillow.com. That means a buyer who closed on a house just before the tax-credit program expired in April 2010 collected $8,000 but has since lost $15,000 in value. Those who bought earlier in the program have done worse; the median price is down $20,000 from March 2009.”

    This of course is only true on average.  Home price declines have been more precipitous in some markets than in others.  Just because someone purchased using the tax credit doesn’t necessarily mean that they lost more than they claimed in the credit.  For instance according to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, prices in Boston are down 1.0% over the past year, and prices in San Diego are down 1.8 percent year-over-year.  On the other end of the spectrum, prices in Minneapolis are down 8.3 percent over the last year, and prices are down 8.4 percent in Phoenix over the last year.  So it is entirely possible that many people who utilized the tax buyer credit lost money, but it is by no means fait accompli as the article would suggest.

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  4. Home Prices Continue Falling into Double-Dip Territory

    By on May 11, 2011

    This is becoming old hat at this point, but yet another measure of home prices confirmed a double dip.  The CoreLogic Home Price Index for March (it is an average of January, February. and March) was released yesterday.  It recorded falling home prices for the eighth straight month, declining 7.5 percent year-over-year, with declines accelerating from a 5.8 percent year-over-year drop in February. When distressed sales are excluded from the figures prices declined 0.96 percent.

    Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic:

    “Last year the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit pulled a significant number of sales forward and, to an extent artificially supported prices.  So, absent the tax credit, it is understandable that we see prices continue to decline when compared with last year.  As we move further away from that support, we will see a leveling of prices and eventually organic improvements in the market.”

    If you check out this graph from the excellent CalculatedRisk, you can see that home prices are now below post-crash lows, and continue to head lower, thus confirming the double dip.  I don’t really want to beat a dead horse, but prices will continue to fall until the supply of homes and the demand for homes hit an equilibrium, and it doesn’t look like that is going to happen any time soon.  Foreclosure inventory hit an all-time high at 2.2 million homes in March, and foreclosures were up 33% from February, adding to the unsold supply. Demand continues to lag as credit is hard to attain, unemployment remains high at 9.0%, and many potential buyers remain on the sidelines waiting for prices to bottom.  Zillow economists appear to support this idea, as they downgraded their market outlook earlier this week, and are now predicting housing will bottom out in 2012.

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  5. Home Prices Declines Accelerate as 1 in 10 U.S. Homes Lie Empty

    By on February 1, 2011

    More bad news on the housing front:

    Yesterday there was yet another report of declining home values, this one from the Wall Street Journal’s quarterly housing survey.  A Wall Street Journal article by Nick Timiraos says that year-over-year home prices declined in all 28 metropolitan areas studied in the Wall Street Journals’ quarterly housing survey.

    Not only are prices falling, but it also appears that prices are falling faster than before, as the year-over-year declines were greater than they were last quarter in 25 of the 28 markets.  According to the article, the greatest declines in home prices occurred in Miami (-15.6%), Detroit (-15.2%), Portland, OR (-12.1%), Atlanta (-12.8%), Orlando (-12.1%), Seattle (-11.9%), and Chicago (-11.8%).  It is worth noting that Portland, Seattle, and Chicago all weathered the initial round of price declines more favorably than many other parts of the country, but high unemployment and bad economic conditions are catching up to these markets as well.

    And when you look at new data from the Census Bureau, it is no wonder prices are falling.  The homeownership rate dropped to 66.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010, the lowest level since 1998, and considerably off the all-time high of 69.2 percent in 2004.  This leaves us with a stunning 18.4 million vacant homes in the United States.  This constitutes almost 11 percent of our housing stock.  This is despite mortgage rates being close to historical lows and the fact that homes are more affordable now than they have been in the past few years.

    These problems will not be fixed until we get a grasp on the unemployment problem in this country.  Unemployment is still above 9%, and labor-force participation rates recently fell to a 25 year low, indicating that many people have simply stopped looking for jobs.  Even if people wanted to buy some of these vacant houses, many are restrained by lack of jobs, lack of income, and lack of credit.  Still others who would move to take a new job are unable to sell their homes at acceptable values.

    These numbers illustrate in sharp contrast why home values will continue to fall in many markets: too much supply, not enough demand, and too few jobs.

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  6. Financial Crisis Inquiry Report Missed Some Major Culprits

    By on January 31, 2011

    financial crisis inquiry commission, mortgage crisis investigationThe Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s report released Friday missed some major culprits of the mortgage melt down and financial crisis.

    The commission blame regulators for failing predict or stop the crisis. One of the more colorful quotes from the commission: “What else could one expect on a highway where there were neither speed limits nor neatly painted lines?”

    “The sentries were not at their posts,” the commission concluded.

    Yet the commission didn’t mention that Congress appoints those sentries and passes legislation that gives them their marching orders. Congress dismantled the Glass-Steagall Act that separated Wall Street investment banks and depository banks and remained silent, or even cheered, as then Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan praised “modern capital theory” and said financial should be self-regulated.

    Any regulator trying to clamp down on loose mortgage lending standards or ridiculously high leveraged investment banks five or 10 years ago would have been fighting against prevailing public attitudes against government regulations, not to mention millions of dollars of lobbying money. Continue Reading…

    Category: Housing Market, Mortgage Regulations
  7. FCIC: Financial Crisis Avoidable, Blame Widespread

    By on January 26, 2011

    The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is due to release a big report on the causes of the financial crisis this Thursday.  It appears that the New York Times has received a sneak peak of the report, because there is a must read article by Sewell Chan in this morning’s paper that covers some of the conclusions of the committee.  The ultimate conclusion is that the crisis was totally avoidable, which is of course little comfort to those who have lost their homes, jobs, or more in the recession.

    From the article:

    “The commission that investigated the crisis casts a wide net of blame, faulting two administrations, the Federal Reserve and other regulators for permitting a calamitous concoction: shoddy mortgage lending, the excessive packaging and sale of loans to investors and risky bets on securities backed by the loans”.

    “The greatest tragedy would be to accept the refrain that no one could have seen this coming and thus nothing could have been done,” the panel wrote in the report’s conclusions, which were read by The New York Times. “If we accept this notion, it will happen again.”

    Blame for the crisis is spread between Republicans, Democrats, the Government, regulators, wall street, the federal reserve, the politcal system, and others.  Among the culprits, in no particular order:

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  8. “Massive Fraud” Alleged in Suit Against B of A’s Countrywide Financial

    By on January 25, 2011

    Recently I’ve discussed the many lawsuits that borrowers are bringing against lenders for alleged wrongful foreclosures.  Lawsuits in Massachusetts, Utah, Maryland, New York, and Massachusetts again are putting lots of pressure on lenders in the ongoing robo-signing foreclosure mess.

    Now we are starting to see lawsuits from investors in mortgage-backed securities, who are understandably upset that their AAA-rated safe mortgage backed securities turned out to be, well,  not-so-safe.  MBIA, TIAA-CREF, New York Life, Dexia Holding, and other major investors are filing suit against Bank of America’s Countrywide Financial (which was acquired by Bank of America in 2008 for $4 billion).  The investors allege that Countrywide committed “massive fraud” when it sold the group hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bad mortgage backed securities.  This could be really bad news for B of A and other big lenders. From the complaint:

    “This action concerns a massive fraud perpetrated by Defendant Countrywide Financial and certain of its officers and affiliates against the Plaintiffs, which are investors in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued by Countrywides subsidiaries. The Plaintiffs are institutional investors that wanted conservative, low-risk investments and thus bought Countrywide MBS (the Certificates) that were represented to be backed by mortgages issued pursuant to specific underwriting guidelines and rated investment-grade (primarily AAA). In purchasing the Certificates, the Plaintiffs and their investment managers relied on term sheets, prospectuses and other materials prepared by and provided to them by the Defendants, which made representations about the Countrywide Defendants purportedly conservative mortgage underwriting standards, the appraisals of the mortgaged properties, the mortgages loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and other facts that were material to Plaintiffs investment decisions. Plaintiffs and their investment managers also relied on Defendants public statements concerning the Countrywide Defendants adherence to prudent underwriting guidelines and careful credit analysis. These representations by Defendants were recklessly or knowingly false when made. In reality, Countrywide was an enterprise driven by only one purpose to originate and securitize as many mortgage loans as possible into MBS to generate profits for the Countrywide Defendants, without regard to the investors that relied on the critical, false information provided to them with respect to the related Certificates.”

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  9. Fed Governor Warns of Bank Liabilities From Mortgage Repurchases

    By on December 1, 2010

    This morning Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee.  He spoke at great length about foreclosures, mortgage servicers, and mortgage modification.  However, we have covered those topics at great length on this blog, and there are very few new revelations in the testimony.  I thought the more interesting portion of the testimony was regarding the risks that mortgage repurchases (or putbacks) pose to major lenders.

    Mortgage repurchase agreements are indemnification clauses that purchasers of mortgage backed securities put in purchase contracts.  These clauses stipulate that the buyer can force the seller to buyback the securities in the event that the underwriting (or other origination processes) for the underlying mortgages was defective and the mortgages defaulted.  Many investors in mortgage backed securities are currently looking into the possibility of pursuing mortgage buybacks against major lenders for violating purchase agreements.

    According to Tarullo:

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates
  10. Mortgage Putbacks Could Cost Banks More Than $100 Billion

    By on November 29, 2010

    Just a brief update here on what seems to be a pretty slow news day:

    According to Paul Miller of FBR Capital Markets (via this Bloomberg Businessweek article), mortgage putbacks could end up costing lenders between $54 and $106 billion.  Within the article he comments that he does not think losses will be as severe as many expect, and that even under the worst case scenario, the losses would be manageable.

    Mortgage repurchase agreements are indemnification clauses that purchasers of mortgage backed securities put in purchase contracts.  These clauses stipulate that the buyer can force the seller to buyback the securities in the event that the underwriting (or other origination processes) for the underlying mortgages was defective and the mortgages defaulted.  Many investors in mortgage backed securities are currently looking into the possibility of pursuing mortgage buybacks against major lenders for violating purchase agreements.
    I’ve heard far-ranging estimates for what lenders’ liabilities due to mortgage putbacks could be.  Most estimates seem to come in between $50-200 billion.  I suspect that this liability, along with that from bad second mortgages, could be far more damaging than Miller suggests.
    Category: Mortgage Rates

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