The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Non Farm Payroll report today. The results were not good and worse than anticipated. Let’s jump right in:
“Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000)”.
Much of the decline in government jobs is due to the last of the census workers being let go in September. Other government sectors shrunk due to cost-cutting and the private sector is not picking up the slack. After census hiring is removed from the equation, the economy lost about 18,000 jobs. Long term unemployment continues to be an insidious problem:
“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over), at 6.1 million, was little changed over the month but was down by 640,000 since a series high of 6.8 million in May. In September, 41.7 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more”.
So 6 million Americans have been out of work for over half a year and are still seeking work. The U.S. workforce is around 143 million people, so this represents about 4 percent of the work force. Incredible. To put this number in context, we can look at long term unemployment during recent recessions. Long term unemployment peaked at about 2.5 percent in mid-1983, and around 1.5 percent in the early 90s recession, and about the same in the early 2000s recession. When the National Bureau of Economic Research claimed in September that the recession ended in June 2009, they clearly weren’t talking about the labor situation.
Remember that all of these numbers only factor in those who are actually actively seeking work. As the economy improves, discouraged workers will rejoin the work force and unemployment numbers will trend up. U-6 unemployment, which includes those “marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force” is at a staggering 17.1 percent.
To say the least, this report is not encouraging.
Loading ...
hiddenlevers
October 8, 2010 @ 12:37 pm
The market has rebounded fiercely over the last 18 months while unemployment has been stuck in neutral. In the end, if hiring doesn’t improve, unemployment may win this battle. We can’t get back to a bull market without job creation and the associated consumer spending and economic growth.
Reply
mr
October 9, 2010 @ 3:09 pm
It’s common sense unemployed loosing benefits to look for work and business playing games for money and holding american workers accountable for an election they want won by the fat cats. America it is time to stand and say we have had enough or give in and find out you will be in more debt!
Reply