1. Personal Income, the Path to Higher Mortgage Rates?

    By on April 30, 2012

    Personal Income Growth May Push Mortgage Rates Higher

     Personal Income continued its steady progress upward since 2010.  This is one of the more positive economic data points that suggests the US economy is gaining strength.  Typically a rise in personal income will translate into higher consumer spending, higher inflation and higher mortgage rates–but not in this recovery, at least, not yet.

    According to consumer spending figures released today, consumers are being cautious about spending their newly found additional income.  The reason is likely continuing anxiety over the jobs market, European debt issues and domestic political gridlock.

    The employment data that is coming this week on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday may provide some comfort or further distress for consumers.  The actual results of the reports will have a definite impact on mortgage rates going forward.

     

     

     

    Category: Compare Mortgage Rates, Current Mortgage Rates, General, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Purchase, Refinance
  2. GDP Drops, Mortgage Rates Too?

    By on April 27, 2012

    US Gross Domestic Product Since 2009

    US Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2012 disappointed analysts and traders this morning.  A growth rate of 2.5% was the level most economists had expected, but this initial look (subject to two more revisions) came in at 2.2%.  The initial reaction from markets was very negative, yet the Consumer Sentiment positive surprise balanced the news of the day.

    The reasons for the slightly lower GDP than expected were less corporate investment and less build-up of inventories. On the positive side consumer spending did show a healthy increase providing reason to expect an acceleration in GDP going forward into 2012.

    One important consideration regarding the April GDP report is that subsequent revisions often change the final number by an average of .5%.  My gut says the change this time is likely to be in an upward direction.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, General, Housing Market, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  3. Durable Goods Sink, Will Mortgage Rates Follow?

    By on April 25, 2012

    Durable Goods October 2011-March 2012

    Durable Goods Orders for March 2001 fell by the greates degree in 3 years.  However, as weak as this report appears, economist reacting this morning found reasons to for optimism.  What gives?

    If the volatile transporation orders are removed from the report the drop is largely erased.  While still negative for the month, March’s durable goods orders were sufficient to likely to impact US Gross Domestic in a positive way.  With the GDP report due next week, many economists are revising there expectations pward to indicate an annual US GDP growth rate of 2.25% to 2.5%.

    The US economy as evidenced by this month’s Durable Goods report has clearly entered a softpatch, yet the slowdown is slight and can easily be reveresed.  For mortgage rates it probably means that near historic lows will continue for the short term.  But should growth re-accelerate rates could quickly be on the rise.

    Category: Compare Mortgage Rates, Current Mortgage Rates, Fixed Rate Mortgages, General, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  4. Will Consumer Confidence Pull Mortgage Rates Down?

    By on April 24, 2012

    Chart of Consumer Confidence

    According to the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell slightly in March of this year to a reading of 69.2.  This was just slightly below the reading for the end of the first quarter in March of 69.5. Economist’s suggest that the primary reason for the drop has been the continuing escalation in gasoline prices.  Yet, with gasoline prices having stabilized in the past two weeks, and even declining marginally, this measure of consumer confidence in the future of the economy is likely to rise in April.

    While consumer confidence doesn’t directly impact mortgage rates, it does impact consumer spending which has a much more direct effect on mortgage rates.  As consumers gain confidence in their job prospects and their ability to afford the basics of food, shelter and transportation they tend to spend more and increase overall demand in the economy.  That in-turn creates more jobs and furthers overall economic growth.

    Over the next month the key economic indicators to watch (outside of Federal Reserve policy) are job creation and the price of gasoline. Should jobs increase and fuel costs drop it could be a set up for rising mortgage rates.  If jobs are flat and gas prices remain near current levels, mortgage rates will likely follow suit.

    Category: Compare Mortgage Rates, Current Mortgage Rates, General, Housing Market, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  5. Will Corporate Earnings Push Mortgage Rates Higher?

    By on April 23, 2012

    It’s corporate earnings season and thus far the percentage of firms reporting earnings that beat analysts’ expectations is near an all-time high.  The 72% mark is the second highest percentage this century of firms whose earnings surpass pre-announcement estimates from Wall Street analysts.

     The implication of these results is that the economy is actually doing better than many anlaysts believe as corporations are spending more and generating more revenues.  This earnings season could be a precursor for improved employment figures, income and retail spending to come later in the year.  If so, mortgage rates would naturally move higher.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, General, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  6. Job Growth Has Stalled-Mortgage Rates Also?

    By on April 19, 2012

    As the chart above clearly shows, first-time claims for unemployment benefits are locked in a range.  Today’s report indicated that 386,000 American’s filed for initial jobless benefits last week, a drop of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure.  After witnessing a steady drop in this important economic metric during 2011, the results in 2012 clearly have economists worried.

    Mortgage rates drop or at least stay low with weak economic news and that is certainly the case today.  Rates are holding near all-time lows and will likely stay in this range through at least the middle of next week.

    Category: General, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  7. Housing Starts Decline a Bad Spring Omen?

    By on April 18, 2012

    According to a report issued yesterday by the Department of Commerce, housing starts in the US declined by almost 6% in March.  Explanations offered by housing analysts focused on the mild winter weather which they speculated led homebuilder’s to initiate construction earlier than normal.

    Despite the month to month decline, the housing starts data was significantly better than for March of 2011 rising 10.3%.  Clearly there are signs of improvement in the housing market, but a continuation of the recent trend would suggest more trouble ahead.

    Category: General, Housing Market, Purchase, Refinance
  8. Do Retail Sales Mean Higher Mortgage Rates?

    By on April 16, 2012

    Retail sales figures released today suggest that the consumer-oriented portion of the US economy is experiencing both month-to month growth and year over year growth.  Since retail sales account for 70% of all US economic activity, this is a sign of real economic strength.  Economic strength usually translates into higher mortgage rates.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, General, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates
  9. Mortgage Rates: What Dr. King Should Inspire in Us

    By on January 16, 2012

    “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.”
    –Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

    I am taking a break today from the normal rate commentary given that US investment markets are closed in observance of the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. national holiday observance.  Nevertheless there are many things going on in our world that matter. So we continue to lend our voice to call for progress that will improve the lives of American citizens by creating an economy that supports the goals of hard work, fairness and peace.

    Homeownership is such a tool that can promote the best of what American society has to offer.  Consequently, we call upon Congress to put aside partisan differences and finish the job of remaking the US housing finance system to remove risk for consumers and taxpayers alike without eliminating the ability of the free market to extend opportunities through innovation and competition. All people are different and the system created should acknowledge those differences and create a path to homeownership that is demanding yes, but not so demanding as to be unattainable.

    We urge Congress to encourage savings through the tax code.  Homeownership should be, and will be, impossible in the future without a reasonable down payment from homebuyers that serves as an indication of a willingness to plan and sacrifice for the benefits that homeownership affords.  Moreover given our aging population, savings and homeownership are crucial to support the financial needs of Americans in retirement.

    Politics has led to a virtual stalemate as it relates to housing policy and that is sad.  Lives and lifetime savings have been, and continue to be, destroyed as the housing crisis and the economic crisis it brought about continue.  We know risks needs to be reduced. We know government’s role needs to be clarified and reduced. We know that homeownership is a privilege and not a right—but a privilege that shout be supported and encouraged.

    My reading of Dr. King’s writings and speeches teaches me that he would have spoken up and told the powers that be in Congress and the White House that they have not done what is required of them relative to their high office.  He would chastise them for failure to put aside differences based on personal feelings while millions suffer.  He would state clearly the damage done to individual lives and families by failure to act. He would demand immediate action but would do so by appealing to the better angels of mankind.

    Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.”

    –Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, General, Housing Market, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Regulations, Purchase, Refinance
  10. Protestors Storm Mortgage Banking Conference

    By on February 1, 2011

    mortgage banking servicing, loan modificationsAbout 100 chanting union protesters burst into a mortgage banking conference in Washington, DC, yesterday, briefly shutting it down and taking over the stage.

    After unfurling a banner and chanting for about 10 minutes, they left peacefully, leaving attendees at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s servicing conference perplexed over why they were there and what they wanted.

    The protestors were from the AFL-CIO, specifically the Sheet Metal Workers International Association and the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades. They were targeting Debra Still, CEO of PulteGroup Mortgage, who was attending the conference.

    You’d think protestors at conference on mortgage servicing would be demanding more loan modifications or better terms for home loans, but PulteGroup is a home-building company.

    PulteGroup received about $900 million in government funds through the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009. Saying they were demanding accountability, the union workers said they to find out what happened to the “taxpayer funds used to bailout PulteGroup.”

    The government money was supposed to be used to create jobs, the AFL-CIO asserted in its press release. Instead, PulteGroup laid off people, reported spending $8 million on employee severances and related costs, and announced plans to cut 350 jobs and close a plant in Tolleson, AZ, according to the union. The company has yet to define how it’s using the money to create jobs. Continue Reading…

    Category: General, Loan Modification

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