Mortgage Rates & Trends: Mortgage Blog

View the lowest rates we have to offer.
Read our RSS Feed Policy

  1. Current Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Rates | Friday, February 3, 2012

    By on February 3, 2012

    Yesterday Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw hit new record lows, with the average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage hitting 3.87%.  Based on the events of this morning, I do not think we will see a new record next week.

    Mortgage rates are rising on the basis of a relatively strong jobs report this morning.  Unemployment dropped to 8.3% in January, and we added 243,000 jobs.  Employment in November was adjusted upward from +100k to +157k, while December’s numbers were revised upward from +200k to +203k.  While this looks good on its face, when you look a little deeper, there are some problems here.  The labor force participation rate fell to 63.7, which is a 30 year low, and the number of people that dropped out of the labor force fell by 1.2 million, which is a record.  So unemployment is falling, due at least in part to the fact that the number of unemployed people being counted is reduced.

    Still, stocks are rallying early, while mortgage backed securities and treasury bonds are getting crushed.  While rates will rise today, I expect that we will see them adjust back downward next week, as soon as people remember that Europe is a mess, and there still appears to be a ways to go before a Greek debt settlement is reached.  Further, it seems likely that Portugal, and maybe other European nations with unmanageable debt loads will follow Greece’s example and ask their bondholders to take significant haircuts.  I think the European situation will keep rates from really spiking in the near future.

    Some of Our Most Popular Rates and Products*:

    Mortgage Product Mortgage Rates APR
    30 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.657%
    20 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.780%
    15 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.125% 3.322%
    30 Year Fixed FHA Mortgage 3.625% 4.975%
    15 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 3.500% 3.670%
    30 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 4.375% 4.474%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.375% 2.437%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Conforming Jumbo Mortgage 2.750% 2.711%

    ***Mortgage rates change often. The above rates were quoted at 1:15 P.M., on February 3, 2012. Call 877-868-2503 for more details.***

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  2. Mortgage Rates: More Jobs = Higher Mortgage Pricing

    By on February 3, 2012

    A blowout Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report this morning has mortgage rates heading higher.  After a week filled with data that was roughly in-line with expectations the NFP report blew away forecasts.  The expectations were for 150,000 new jobs to be created in January, yet when the counting was done 243,000 new jobs were documented.  This is certainly confirmation that the US economy has strengthened dramatically, yet the naysayers have already begun to spin why the jobs uptick may be limited.

    Two additional economic reports have the potential to accelerate the upward move in mortgage pricing today or to moderate it.  At 10 AM the ISM Services Index and Factory Orders report will be released.  The ISM Services Index is forecasted to increase from last month, which seems like a good bet given the number of service-sector jobs that were created according to the NFP report.  The Factory Orders report is forecasted to drop slightly which also seems likely given the weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Index earlier in the week.  If these reports come in as expected, I suspect that it will cause further losses in MBS and more upward momentum for mortgage pricing.

    On Monday Euro-Zone financial ministers are meeting and there is hope that approval of the second round of bailout funding will be approved at that time.  However, there is much still to be agreed to.  After reaching a deal with private creditors to cut their payouts from existing Greek debt by 70%, the burden is now on the Greek government to come up with additional savings from labor market and other reforms that will drop the country’s debt/GDP ratio to 120%.  This is a tall task as Greek politicians who must approve these reforms don’t want to be associated with these very unpopular reforms.  I would not be surprised to see Monday come and go with no deal and no bailout funds for Greece.

    After a week in which the attention was primarily on the state of the US economy, next week will see a return to the Euro-centric focus that has been so pervasive for over a year.

    Have a great weekend!

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Purchase, Refinance

  3. Current Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Rates | Thursday, February 2, 2012

    By on February 2, 2012

    Mortgage rates are improving somewhat this morning, despite a positive initial unemployment claims report (recall that mortgage rates usually get worse on good news).  In all likelihood everybody is awaiting tomorrow’s non farm payroll report, and we won’t see a lot of movement one way or the other today.  According to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation for NFP is that we will see a 135,000 increase, and that the unemployment rate will stay the same.  Realistically, we need to start seeing numbers of +300k before seeing any significant decline in unemployment, and I don’t think that will happen anytime soon.

    As always, the situation in Greece and the possibility of some kind of implosion of the Eurozone is helping to keep rates depressed.  Now there is the growing concern that Portugal and other European countries may follow in the footsteps of Greece and default on their debts as well (I don’t see why they wouldn’t).  I saw some truly staggering numbers about European youth unemployment yesterday, and in light of this, and the huge debt loads of peripheral European countries, I am having trouble envisioning a positive outcome to this whole mess.

    In other news, President Obama announced a new refinancing program yesterday.  Again.  I don’t think this has any chance of passing through Congress, and even if it does, I don’t think it does anything to address the real problems that are killing the housing market (specifically, the $700+ billion in negative equity spread through the sector).  The plan would help those who are underwater and current on their mortgages.  This is marginally helpful at best, but does nothing to help those that are behind on their mortgages and underwater, and lets the foreclosure crisis rage on.  This program may help some small number of people (if it ever gets enacted), but is more election year talking point than real plan.

    If you need a new mortgage, give us a call at 877-868-2503.  We have some of the best rates in the industry and are often able to close loans in 21 days or less.  Whether you want to buy a new home or refinance your current one, we can advise you on choosing a new mortgage that will help you secure your financial future.

    Some of Our Most Popular Rates and Products*:

    Mortgage Product Mortgage Rates APR
    30 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.657%
    20 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.780%
    15 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.125% 3.322%
    30 Year Fixed FHA Mortgage 3.625% 4.975%
    15 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 3.500% 3.670%
    30 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 4.375% 4.474%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.375% 2.437%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Conforming Jumbo Mortgage 2.750% 2.711%

    ***Mortgage rates change often. The above rates were quoted at 1:15 P.M., on February 2, 2012. Call 877-868-2503 for more details.***

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  4. Mortgage Rates: Change in Trend “Or Not”

    By on February 2, 2012

    As I discussed at the outset of this week, it was destined to be a very important week for mortgage rates.  With more data of significance announced this week as compared to almost any other week during the year, we could see a major change in the mortgage trend.  What has been a very favorable, downward trend for mortgage rates could continue with weak economic news. Or strong economic news could cause a reversal in the trend and send mortgage rates higher.  We could have seen this type of movement…or not.  What I did not count on, based on my experience with economic forecasts, was for the data this week to come in almost exactly as forecasted.

    Thus the result so far this week has been virtually no change in mortgage pricing at all since last Friday.  However—it’s only Thursday and the biggest economic report of all is still to come tomorrow.  The Non-Farm Payrolls Report still has the power to establish a trend for mortgage rates for the foreseeable future.  This time though, I will include the possibility that a result, “in-line with expectations”, could reinforce the current level of mortgage pricing.

    Today’s economic data that is moving mortgage pricing nowhere was Productivity and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Productivity was forecasted to increase by .8%–the actual result was an increase of .7%.  Weekly Jobless Claims were forecasted at 370,000—the actual result was 367,000.  Despite these reports offering no positive or negative surprise, I do see signs of improvement.  The drop in productivity signals that businesses are getting less from efficiency or technology changes and will soon need to increase labor in order to boost production.  Also, the slow drop in jobless claims signals a slow (painfully slow) improvement in the labor market.  These measures are connected and the drop in the first should lead to an accelerating drop in the second.

    Related to the European debt crisis, the biggest news of the day is a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and China’s Premier Wen Jiabao.  The Chinese leader did provide some positive news as he stated that China may “get more involved” with efforts to resolve the crisis.  With almost $4 trillion in reserves, China certainly has the ability to help.  This should provide another calming bit of news for world markets today.

    Today mortgage rates are likely to stay very close to current levels.  Tomorrow the Non-Farm Payrolls report could lead to a change in the mortgage rate trend…or not!

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Purchase, Refinance

  5. Current Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Rates | February 1, 2012

    By on February 1, 2012

    It seems as though that mortgage rates will rise today, as the stock market is rallying early on somewhat positive employment news from ADP (+170k jobs in December), the ISM Manufacturing report showing an expansion in manufacturing (index increased from 52.7 to 53.9 in December), and the news that a Greek debt deal is going to happen soon (I doubt it).  As a result of the stock rally, we are seeing a sell-off in treasuries and mortgage backed securities, which could lead to slightly higher rates today, although I doubt we see a significant spike.

    There are also rumors in the Wall Street Journal today that the president is set to announce a new refinancing plan.  The paper says that the plan will cost $5-10 billion.  There is more than $700 billion in negative equity in the U.S. housing market.  If the WSJ is correct, this plan does nothing to address that, nor is it of a size that will really be of any significance at all.  The plan also is opposed by Congress.  This reeks of election year grandstanding, and nothing more.

    If you’re looking for a new mortgage, we would like to help you out.  We offer some of the most competitive rates in the mortgage industry.  Our in-house processing and underwriting departments allow us to close loans quickly, often in twenty-one days or less.  Call us today in 877-868-2503.  We may be able to help you save money on your fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, FHA, or jumbo mortgage.

    Some of Our Most Popular Rates and Products*:

    Mortgage Product Mortgage Rates APR
    30 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.657%
    20 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.780%
    15 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.125% 3.322%
    30 Year Fixed FHA Mortgage 3.625% 4.975%
    15 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 3.500% 3.670%
    30 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 4.375% 4.474%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.375% 2.437%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Conforming Jumbo Mortgage 2.750% 2.711%

    ***Mortgage rates change often. The above rates were quoted at 1:15 P.M., on February 1, 2012. Call 877-868-2503 for more details.***

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  6. Mortgage Rates: Obama to “Friend” Millions?

    By on February 1, 2012

    Today is the day that Facebook will file its initial public offering.  There are also rumors that today is the day that President Obama will announce his plan to enable millions of homeowners to refinance at current historically low interest rates.  In some ways, it’s as if he is sending a huge “friend request” to American homeowners.  Is this good economic policy or simply politics as usual and what effect will it have on mortgage rates?

    It appears from early trading in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) today that the markets are focused on the Facebook IPO and stocks are set to rise.  This will put pressure on MBS pricing today and could keep rates from falling any further.  Unless the stock market surges more than appears likely, mortgage rates will likely remain close to current levels throughout the day.

    Several economic reports are also in the mix today.  The ADP Employment Change report came in about at the point of expectations though newly created jobs were down significantly from December.  Analysts were encouraged however by the surge in new service sector jobs, explaining that a broad-based improvement in employment across all sectors is necessary for sustainable economic growth.

    At 10 AM both the Construction Spending report and the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released.  The ISM Index is a gauge of manufacturing industry activity and is a very important report.  If this report is at or above expected levels, mortgage pricing may feel more upward pressure.  If, however, we see a surprise to the downside, then mortgage pricing may improve.

    Let’s get back to the President’s refinance plan.  According to reports the plan will call for a tax on large banks to pay for the cost of allowing homeowners to refinance into Federal Housing Administration loans.  Having failed to get the conservator of the other two government-sponsored housing agencies to go along with a similar plan, the president has turned to the one agency he has direct control over.  That being said, the plan has virtually no chance to pass Congress as it has failed to even be acted on twice before.

    As to its public policy and economic implications my belief is that it is poor policy to allow refinancing into government (taxpayer) backed mortgages by homeowners that would not otherwise qualify for the loans.  Economically, it would provide substantial stimulus initially but it might also have the unintended consequence of causing mortgage rates to rise.  Banks unable to handle the onslaught of borrowers, and fearing repurchase risks from loans that go bad, may raise their interest rates to discourage borrowers.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Purchase, Refinance

  7. Home Prices Continue to Fall, Still we Lack a Real Housing Policy

    By on January 31, 2012

    The housing sector is not going to lead the economy out of the woods, not anytime soon:

    Home prices are still falling, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for November, released this morning.  This, of course, is not really news for anyone who took economics 101 given the weak demand for homes and the massive supply of them on the market and in shadow inventory.  Home prices are now off by about a third since the market peaked in 2006, and both the 10- and 20-city indices are close to breaking through their post-crisis lows.

    The 10- and 20-city indices both fell 1.3% from October 2011 to November 2011 (all numbers cited are not seasonally adjusted).  Year-over-year, the 10- and 20-city indices were down 3.6% and 3.7% respectively.  The S&P/Case-Shiller index is a three month moving average that is two months delayed.  Of the most recent report, David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee remarked:

    “Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October.  The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative. Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.

    The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was April 2009; for the 20-City Composite the more recent low was March 2011. The 10-City Composite is now about 1.0% above its low, and the 20-City Composite is only 0.6% above its low. From their 2006 peaks, both Composites are down close to 33% through November.”

    Year-over-year, home prices were down in 18 of 20 cities surveyed, with only Detroit (with 3.8% growth) and Washington, D.C. (with 0.5% growth) showing gains.  On a month-over-month basis, only Phoenix showed an increase with a 0.6% gain from October to November.

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  8. Current Mortgage Rates for Tuesday, January 31, 2012

    By on January 31, 2012

    Mortgage rates will likely remain near all-time lows today in light of mixed economic data this morning, and mixed news out of Europe.  At this point the markets seem more rumor driven than data driven, and stocks are rising this morning on rumors that the Greek debt talks may be progressing (even though there are other signals that suggest the debt contagion is spreading to Portugal, Italy, and possibly Spain).  We could easily see the market turn on a dime if whispers emerge that the Greek debt agreement is falling apart.

    I think that we will likely see rates continue to be range bound today, with rates hovering right around record lows.  If you need a new mortgage, we may be able to help you lock in some of the lowest rates in decades.

    If you want to refinance your home or purchase a new house, call one of our licensed loan officers today at 877-868-2503. Total Mortgage has some of the best rates you will find, and our in-house closing and processing centers allow us to close loans very quickly, often in 21 days or less.  Lower home payments could be just a phone call away, don’t hesitate to contact us now.

    Some of Our Most Popular Rates and Products*:

    Mortgage Product Mortgage Rates APR
    30 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.657%
    20 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.625% 3.780%
    15 Year Fixed Conventional Mortgage 3.125% 3.322%
    30 Year Fixed FHA Mortgage 3.625% 4.975%
    15 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 3.500% 3.670%
    30 Year Fixed Conforming Jumbo 4.375% 4.474%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage 2.375% 2.437%
    5/1 Adjustable Rate Conforming Jumbo Mortgage 2.750% 2.711%

    ***Mortgage rates change often. The above rates were quoted at 1:15 P.M., on January 31, 2012. Call 877-868-2503 for more details.***

    Continue Reading…

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  9. Mortgage Rates Preview for the Week of January 30-February 3, 2012

    By on January 31, 2012

    In addition to the crisis in Greece, there are many economic reports that will impact mortgage rates this week. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, and Consumer Confidence reports being published today.  ADP’s private sector employment report is published on Wednesday along with the ISM Manufacturing Index.  Initial Jobless claims are reported on Thursday, and the all-important non farm payroll report is published on Friday.

    David Coster shares his views on the direction mortgage rates will take in light of these and other reports below.

    Category: Mortgage Rates

  10. Mortgage Rates: Time for a Pause in the Records

    By on January 31, 2012

    Mortgage rates appear poised for a flat to higher opening for the day as strong economic news is reported and progress is made in Greek debt negotiations.

    Economic data to be reported in the US today includes the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9 AM, the Chicago PMI report at 9:45 AM and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM.  Expectations for the Case-Shiller Index are for a continued drop in home prices, yet a decline in the rate of that drop.  The Chicago PMI report is one of the most important measures of manufacturing activity in the US due to the concentration of manufacturing in the Chicago region.  Analysts expect the report to be flat—but maintain its current high level.  As for Consumer Confidence, analysts expect it to surge even higher from current readings signaling that the important consumer sector of our economy is becoming more confident with each passing month in the long term prospects for the economy and for themselves.

    Markets are also encouraged by progress toward more significant fiscal controls in the European Union today.  25 of the 27 member states, currently excluding only the UK and the Czech Republic, have signed a new treaty which would impose severe penalties on any nation that fails to meet established guidelines for fiscal discipline.  This of course relates most directly to Greece currently, but will impact other member states as the year progresses.

    The US stock market is getting close to what is known as the “golden cross”.  This is a technical indicator that describes when the 50-day moving average in the S&P Index crosses the trend line for the 200-day moving average.  This is historically viewed as a bullish sign for the markets.  In this particular case however it is the decline in the 200-day average that is leading to the event rather than the rise in the 50-day average.  In fact, the S&P Index has been down for five of the previous six trading sessions.  This ought to take some of the positive energy out of this technical event.

    Nevertheless, good economic news today, progress in Europe and the “golden cross” may lead to a pause in the run of record low mortgage rates today.

    Category: Current Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, Mortgage Rate Trends and Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Purchase, Refinance

LOOKING TO BUY OR REFINANCE?

Or Call us at 877-868-2503